Be careful what you ask for.
In October 2004, near the end of the U.S. presidential election, I wrote, “Protest votes are meaningless, worthless, and wasted. They do not make a difference!”
That election was between George W. Bush and John Kerry, with Ralph Nader as a third party candidate, trailing far behind.
In November, Nader received 463,655 votes, for 0.38 percent of the popular vote, placing him in third place overall. Those who voted for him in this election made no difference in the end result of the election.
However, the election of George W. Bush, four years earlier in 2000, may have come down to votes that were neither cast for him nor his Democrat opponent, Al Gore, but, rather, to a minor party candidate, Ralph Nader – votes that were cast in a single state – Florida, which turned out to be that election’s tipping point state.
On election day , November 7, 2000, between 7:50 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. EST, all major television news networks (CNN, NBC, FOX, CBS, and ABC) declared that Gore had carried Florida’s 25 electoral votes – predictions primarily based on exit polls. As actual vote totals came in through the night, the networks retracted their prediction when Bush began to take a wide lead. Early in the morning of November 8, the networks declared Bush had carried Florida and had been elected president. With 85% of votes tallied and Bush ahead by over 100,000 votes, Gore privately conceded to Bush. By 4:30 a.m., with all of the votes in, Bush’s lead had dwindled to 2000. The networks again retracted their predictions and Gore retracted his concession.
Without Florida’s 25 votes, Bush had 246 electoral votes and Gore had 250. Wisconsin and Oregon were still too close to call, but their combined 18 electoral college votes were not enough to bring either candidate’s total up to 271 votes, the minimum need to win. All interested eyes turned to Florida.
Florida’s results were close enough to trigger a mandatory machine recount under state law. When completed, Bush’s lead had dropped to just 300 votes. Gore requested hand recounts, as provided under Florida State law, of Broward, Miami Dade, Palm Beach, and Volusia counties ballots.
A five-week battle ensued over the ballots, rules, law, and courts.
When the recount dust settled, George Bush had defeated Al Gore in Florida by 537 votes. Gore got Wisconsin and Oregon, but Florida put Bush over the top by one electoral college vote.
An election spoiler?
Ralph Nader had received 97,421 votes in Florida. Several studies suggest that Nader’s participation was a critical factor in Bush’s victory, that Nader voters’ profiles more closely matched those of Democratic voters and, in the absence of Nader’s candidacy, those voters would have been more likely to vote for Gore than Bush.
A few thousand less “protest votes” for Nader might have placed Al Gore in the White House.
The background for the Final Results Electoral Map image is a butterfly ballot from Palm Beach County, Florida. (link accessed June 13, 2019)
