My last post was 4 1/2 months ago or so.  While I’ve been doing a lot online, much of it has been related to researching the issues related to an casino that will likely be opening in this area, as well as sharing that information on a grassroots Facebook group. We also traveled for several weeks out in some of the western states.

Started in late June, the Facebook group quickly grew to over 6,000 members and is now approaching 7,200 members and, yes, we have had an impact. We thought that, at best, we would be waiting for a local county ordinance mandated vote on the casino in either March 2020, during the primary, or November 2020, during the general election, after which, if approved, a constitutionally required document supporting a casino operator could be written and signed and that casino operator could then apply for a casino license.

Well, it didn’t work out that way. We’re actually further than we anticipated we would be this time next year!

Here we are at  the beginning of December 2019, just under a year away from that general election and we have a casino operator, Cherokee Nation Businesses (CNB). that has been provided with multiple support documents from county officials.  CNB submitted their application in August, which initiated a new 90 day application period, which ended a couple of weeks ago.

So, we should be just waiting for that license to be issued and for CNB to break ground at the site of the new casino, right?

If only it were that easy.

Earlier in the year, county officials and their attorney tried to find a way to have the ordinance required vote, but kept getting told by state officials and other legal authorities that we couldn’t legally have a vote the way the ordinance required and that the ordinance was trumped by the constitutional amendment.  So, after getting a sense through ways other than the ballot — surveys, telephone, polls, social media, e-mail, etc. — that the public wanted a casino, the county quorum court passed a resolution of support, one of the options required by the new casino gaming amendment to the state’s constitution, for CNB on August 13th…. and were promptly served with subpoenas and a lawsuit by a local anti-casino group and a prominent realtor.

That lawsuit has already been heard in circuit court and has been dismissed with prejudice — the issue can’t be filed again, though the case could be appealed  — and the ordinance was declared unconstitutional.  That was already a moot point, as it had been repealed by the quorum court the night before, though the judge didn’t take that into consideration in his rulings.

At that point, other legal hurdles remained.

Three of the county justices of the peace — essentially elected positions equivalent to county commissioners in other states — faced ethic charges filed in connection to the casino issue.  A couple of weeks ago, after hearing from investigators, the four members of the Arkansas Ethics Commission unanimously voted to clear them of the charges.

Last August, the local anti-casino group and the prominent realtor who sued our county officials also sued the Arkansas Racing Commission.  (The 2018 constitutional amendment that established casino gaming in Arkansas assigned casino regulation and licensing to the already existing Racing Commission.) That case is based on the same ordinance as the dismissed case in our county. Besides the ordinance being repealed by the county and declared unconstitutional by the circuit court, other support documents from county officials were written and submitted to the Racing Commission.  The plaintiff’s case has been rendered totally moot, though it is scheduled for a hearing later this month.

In June, the Racing Commission rejected license applications from five casino applicants because none of them had valid documents of support from county officials.  While one of them, Gulfside Casino Partnership, had letters of support, they were from officials that had been out of office several months when Gulfside submitted their application on May 17. State law and Arkansas Casino Gaming Rules require that the support documents come from current local officials.  In July, Gulfside submitted an appeal to the Racing Commission on their license rejection and, in August, the Racing Commission denied that appeal.  Gulfside subsequently filed for judicial review of the Racing Commission’s ruling.  The basis for their appeal and request for judicial review is their assertion that the rules were changed after they received the letters of support and that the state law and gaming rule are unconstitutional. In fact, their claim is largely based on an email from the Commission’s attorney as well as proposed rules that the commission approved for publication and comment, rules that were never actually published and never implemented.  This case is currently in quasi-legal limbo over venue, which has changed twice already, with no new hearing date scheduled.

By the gaming rules, it looks like a license should be issued to CNB sometime in the next month or so.  However, since the Racing Commission is the body charged with developing, maintaining, and administering the rules, they should be able to waive the rule and delay issuing a license if litigation issues warrant it.

As always, time will tell!

A top 20 song that week

Crystal Blue Persuasion by Tommy James and the Shondells

…

Some Events of the Week¹

• July 6 – One of the Soviet Central Television networks gave viewers “their first look at nude movies and sex magazines”, unprecedented in the network’s broadcasting and a shock to Russian society’s normally prudish attitudes toward sex. Western observers concluded that the late evening show was intended for propaganda purposes, and that “Its apparent aim was to put America in a bad light by shocking puritanical Russians”. Nude scenes from the recently produced off-Broadway play Oh! Calcutta! were shown, along with the recent film Che!, along with photographs of “sex magazine covers with unclad men and women” that “appeared to have been photographed through the windows of midtown bookshops in New York City”. The show’s narrator informed viewers that “The American public loves this.”
• July 7 – French joined English as one of the two official languages of Canada as the House of Commons approved the Official Languages Act on its third and final reading.
• July 8 – The first of 25,000 American troops to be withdrawn from the Vietnam War arrived at McCord Air Force Base in state of Washington, south of Seattle at 6:30 in the evening, with a C-141 transport plane, one of nine to land at McCord, arrived.
• July 10 –
  • At 8:00 p.m., the countdown began at five days, 13 hours and 32 minutes for the 9:32 a.m. launch on July 16 of the Apollo 11 mission.
  • The first parade for Vietnam War veterans took place, with the men of the 3rd Battalion, 60th Brigade of the 9th Infantry Division of the United States Army marching through Seattle to the cheers of supporters and the booing of demonstrators from the Seattle Anti-War Action Movement.
• July 11 – David Bowie’s song “Space Oddity” (about a fictional astronaut, “Major Tom”), was released by Philips Records in conjunction with the expected launch of the Apollo 11 mission to the Moon. The song had been recorded three weeks earlier.
• July 12 – Nearly four months after its cancellation by the American NBC TV network, Star Trek was introduced to British television viewers.
• July 13 – The Soviet Union launched the unmanned lunar spacecraft Luna 15, three days before the scheduled liftoff of the American Apollo 11 manned mission to the Moon, with the objective of performing a sample-return mission and bringing back the first lunar soil (a “Moon rock”) ahead of the United States.  Course corrections were done to place Luna 15 into lunar orbit at 16 kilometres (9.9 mi) altitude and on a different orbital plane than the Apollo 11 16.9 kilometres (10.5 mi) altitude above the lunar surface, and to land at the Mare Crisium after the American lunar module’s landing at the Mare Tranquillitatis to depart first. The Luna 15 lander crashed into the Moon at 15:50 UT, hours before the scheduled American lift off from the Moon..

1. July 1969. Wikipedia. most recent edit: July 9, 2019. Accessed July 09, 2019.

Image from Pixabay¹

The prospects of a renaissance of conventional nuclear power plants construction have dimmed, but is there still hope?²

In a 2006 blog post about new nuclear power plants, I predicted “Almost certainly within the next 10 years, there will be several under construction, possibly one or more on line, providing power to the national electric grid.”

Ten years later, demand for energy was soaring, the price of natural gas had quadrupled — gas powered generating plants provided 24% of U.S. generation — and Congress had approved significant incentives for new nuclear plants. Over half of Americans believed new nuclear power plants should be built. Construction was restarted on plants that had been previously terminated, Watts Bar Unit 2 and Bellefonte Unit 1.

Watts Barr Unit 2, with initial criticality on May 23, 2016, entered commercial operation on October 19, 2016, 43 years after construction began.^{3, 4} At least 4 nuclear power units were under construction at that time, 2 in South Carolina at the V.C. Summer site and Vogtle Units 3 and 4 in Georgia.

I had been right with that 2006 prediction.  A decade later a “new” plant was on line and 4 more were under construction.

However,…

On August 14, 2017, construction was stopped at both new V.C. Summer units, eight years after construction began.^{5, 6}

Decline

Beginning in 1992, deregulation dramatically shifted portions of the electricity production industry from a tightly regulated monopoly to a free market system.  From 1999, when Entergy bought Pilgrim, through 2007, “48 of the nation’s 103 nuclear power reactors were sold to independent power producers selling power in competitive wholesale markets.”⁷

Since then, though, conditions that favored investment in new nuclear and movement of existing nuclear into merchant fleets have evaporated, adversely impacting many existing nuclear units and reducing the potential for new nuclear plants.

Natural gas and oil prices had spiked upward in North America from 2000 through 2008 due to a decline in production and an increase in demand for electricity generation.⁸

The steeply rising natural gas and oil prices of the 2000s – crude exceeded $140 a barrel in 2008 – brought capital investment and extensive development, drilling, and construction into the fossil fuel sector.⁹  Since 2005, the U.S. has seen more than 100,000 new oil and gas wells.¹⁰ With advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, from 2007 to 2016 U.S. natural gas production rose 39% and oil went up 75%.¹¹  As well, the average operating expenses for existing gas turbine power plants has been cut by more than half, while it’s gone up slightly for nuclear.¹²

Changes in the merchant electrical environment, primarily significantly lower natural gas prices, adversely impacted many companies owning and operating nuclear power plants. About half of the U.S. plants currently in operation are in deregulated regions of the country where consumers can choose their electric provider instead of using the utility-appointed supplier. Dozens of plants in those areas are seeking financial support to stay operating.¹³

Early permanent closures

Several plants have been permanently shut down in recent years, most before the end of their existing operating license:¹⁴

• • February 2013, Crystal River, PWR. Florida, decommissioned due to damage to the containment structure sustained when new steam generators were installed in 2009-10,
  • May 2013, Kewaunee, PWR, Wisconsin, after 39 years operation, due to lower natural gas costs and resultant lower electricity prices  against which the plant could not compete,¹⁵
  • June 2013, two units at San Onofre, PWR, California, retired due to regulatory delay and uncertainty following tube wear damage discovered in the steam generators of both units,
  • December 2014, Vermont Yankee, BWR, Vermont, due to economic factors, notably the lower cost of electricity provided by competing natural gas-fired power plants,¹⁶
  • October 2016, Fort Calhoun Nuclear Generating Station, PWR, Nebraska,  citing economic reasons as the main cause,¹⁷
  • October 2018, Oyster Creek, BWR, New Jersey, 10 years earlier than planned so that cooling towers will not have to be installed to meet new environmental standards,¹⁸
  • May 2019, Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station, BWR, Massachusetts, retired because of the relative cost of operating the plant compared with the level of wholesale power prices in New England.¹⁹

More plants are expected to follow in permanently shutting down:

• • September 2019, Three Mile Island, Unit 1,  PWR, Pennsylvania, struggled for years financially,^{20, 21}
  • 2020, Duane Arnold Nuclear Plant, BWR, Iowa, inability to compete on the wholesale market,²²
  • 2020 – 2021, Indian Point Units 1 & 2, part of Entergy’s exit from the merchant power business due to sustained low wholesale energy prices,^{23, 24}
  • 2022, Palisades Nuclear Plant, PWR, Michigan, part of Entergy’s strategy “of exiting the merchant nuclear power business,“²⁵
  • 2024 – 2025, Diablo Canyon Power Plant Units 1 & 2, PWR, California, license extension application withdrawn, shutting down at end of original license periods.²⁶

Other plant’s are in jeopardy of early closure.

Bankrupt company FirstEnergy Solutions is likely to shutter Davis-Besse (PWR) and Perry (BWR) Nuclear Power Plants in 2020 and 2021 if it doesn’t get subsidies from the state of Ohio. Davis-Besse is currently unable to pay for the next refueling, scheduled in 2020.²⁷ Without financial assistance from Pennsylvania, FirstEnergy Solutions will also shut down Beaver Valley Units 1 & 2 (BWRS) sometime after June 2021.²⁸

Dimming prospects

Nuclear power’s share  of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation is expected to fall from 20% this year to 19%, mainly due to nuclear plant retirements.²⁹ Despite the loss of seven reactors since 2013, power plant uprates and shorter refueling outages have made it possible to maintain a relatively constant total actual U.S. nuclear generation.³⁰ With only two new reactors on the horizon and six, possibly eight, to close in the next six years, nuclear generation’s share in U.S. production is anticipated to decline for the foreseeable future – as energy consumption continues to rise – reaching 12% by 2050.³¹

In March 2019, the NRC-issued combined licenses (COL)³² for Virgil C. Summer Nuclear Station Units 2 and 3 were terminated.

Fourteen COLs were issued between February 2012 and April 2018.  Six have subsequently been terminated.  Of the remaining eight, construction is in progress only on Vogtle Units 3 and 4.³³ Applications made for several other COLs were withdrawn.  Four – Comanche Peak, Units 3 and 4 and Shearon Harris, Units 2 and 3 – have been suspended.³⁴

In 2011, the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) authorized resumption of construction of Bellefonte Unit 1, but later, in 2015,  determined that it would be unlikely to need a new large plant such as Bellefonte for the next 20 years.  TVA directors declared the plant surplus in 2016 and put it up for auction, but two years later pulled out of a resulting sales agreement, citing failure of the buyer to obtain regulatory approval for the transfer of the site.³⁵

Construction is billions over budget and years behind schedule for Vogtle Units 3 & 4. In March, the U.S. Department of Energy finalized up to $3.7 billion in loan guarantees for Vogtle, bringing the federal government’s total in loan guarantees for Vogtle to $12 billion.³⁶

The future of nuclear

It’s harder predict the fate of nuclear power ten years down the road than it was in 2006.  The favorable conditions of 2006 have given way to much more difficult financial and energy generation market environments. Since about 2010, the prospect of continuing low natural gas prices has dampened plans for new nuclear capacity.³⁷  With a combination of low wholesale electricity prices and escalating costs, older plants are closing faster than new plants are being built.

Last year, a senior official with Exelon – America’s largest nuclear plant operating company – predicted a dim future for U.S. Nuclear Power. “The fact is – and I don’t want my message to be misconstrued in this part – I don’t think we’re building any more nuclear plants in the United States. I don’t think it’s ever going to happen,” said William Von Hoene, senior vice president and chief strategy officer at Exelon. “I’m not arguing for the construction of new nuclear plants. They are too expensive to construct, relative to the world in which we now live.”³⁸ After Von Hoene’s statements were picked up by many media outlets, Exelon President and Chief Executive Officer Chris Crane said the company was “unequivocally committed to a strong and successful future for nuclear energy, including advancing and investing in new technology, while tirelessly promoting sound energy policies and critically needed market reforms.” However, despite Exelon’s convictions, “it is clear that new, large-scale nuclear plants are not viable in today’s U.S. competitive markets, where even existing nuclear plants are challenged due to the failure of these markets.” With needed reforms, though, Exelon “sees tremendous promise in advanced nuclear technologies, including small modular reactors that can be built on a shorter capital cycle.”³⁹

More than 75 commercial U.S. reactors have had their licenses renewed for an additional 20 years of operation past the original 40 year license.⁴⁰ Several plants will be nearing the end of that extension in the next decade.  A second renewal, called “subsequent license renewal” by the NRC, would extend the operating life of existing reactors 20 more years, out to 80 years after their initial commercial operation date. Once an application is accepted as sufficiently complete, the NRC’s goal is to complete safety and environment reviews within 18 months.⁴¹  The NRC currently has subsequent renewal applications for six reactors under review.⁴²

Because of the high capital cost of large power reactors and interest for servicing small electricity grids under 4 GWe outside the U.S, there is interest in developing smaller reactors, such as small modular reactors⁴³ (SMRs). These could be built independently or as modules in a larger facility, with capacity added as needed. Independent units could be constructed for remote sites away from conventional power grids.  Smaller units would also be suitable for replacing decommissioned coal plants, over 90% of which are under 500 MWe and some under 50 MWe. Worldwide, “four main options are being pursued, light water reactors, fast neutron reactors, graphite-moderated high temperature reactors and various kinds of molten salt reactors (MSRs).”⁴⁴

Worldwide, out of over 30 designs for smaller reactors, only a few have gone beyond various design stages:

• NuScale, in the United States, is in the licensing stage.⁴⁵  A proposed 720 MWe plant powered by twelve 60-megawatt modules would be constructed on the Department of Energy’s Idaho National Laboratory. If approved, the plant could begin construction in 2023, to be fully operational by 2027.^{46, 47}
• A 25 MWE prototype of Argentina’s CAREM design is under construction.⁴⁸
• Twin reactors on the Russian floating nuclear power unit (FPU) Akademik Lomonosov were tested at 100% capacity in March 2019. The KLM-40S reactors are 52 MWe variants of the PWR reactors used to power Taymyr-class icebreakers. Akademik Lomonosov  is initially destined to serve the port city of Pevek, in the Chukotka region in Russia’s Far East, where it will operate as part of a floating nuclear power plant. It expected to be towed from Murmansk some 3100 miles via the Northern Sea Route, departing in August or September, when Arctic ice conditions are more favorable.⁴⁹

Floating Nuclear Power Unit, ‘Akademik Lomonosov’ in port of  Murmansk, Russia, September 2018⁵⁰

• A land based 55MWe version of the RITM-200 PWR reactor, using the reactor design for Russia’s newest class of nuclear ice breakers, is under development. It would use up to 20% enriched uranium-235 and will be refueled every 7 years for a 40 year planned lifespan.⁵¹
• South Korea’s 100 MWe System-integrated Modular advanced Reactor (SMART) design (PWR) received a standard design approval in 2013. While no construction has begun,  a three year preliminary engineering period for building units in Saudi Arabia was started late in 2015. However, plans for Korea to export the SMART reactor to Saudi Arabia may be in jeopardy.⁵²

On September 2018, President Trump signed the Nuclear Energy Innovation Capabilities Act (NEICA) which passed Congress with bipartisan support. The bill established “an advanced nuclear energy licensing cost-share grant program between industry and the federal government to accelerate the deployment of small modular reactors and advanced reactor technologies.”⁵³

Another bipartisan bill, the Nuclear Energy Innovation and Modernization Act (NEIMA), became law on January 17, 2019.  It requires the NRC to modify the licensing process for commercial advanced reactors facilities, establishes new transparency and accountability measures to the NRC’s budget and fee programs, and caps fees for existing reactors. ⁵⁴

On March 27, 2019, the bipartisan Nuclear Energy Leadership Act (NELA) was re-submitted, having been considered in the previous US Congress, which ended January 2. “It directs the US Secretary of Energy ‘to establish advanced nuclear goals, provide for a versatile, reactor-based fast neutron source, make available high-assay, low-enriched uranium for research, development, and demonstration of advanced nuclear reactor concepts, and for other purposes.” NELA includes “authorisation of long-term power purchase agreements; the establishment of a long-term nuclear power purchase agreement pilot program; advanced nuclear reactor research and development goals; a nuclear energy strategic plan; a versatile, reactor-based fast neutron source; advanced nuclear fuel security programs; and a university nuclear leadership program.”⁵⁵

Don’t forget the unexpected

Commercial nuclear power in the United States has, at times, been plagued by circumstances unexpected by the original owners and investors.

The 1979 accident at Three Mile Island resulted in immediate and long term impacts on the U.S. nuclear power industry. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission issued temporary shutdown orders for all Babcock & Wilcox built reactors and  delayed issuance of new operating licenses.  Additional requirements were placed on all new and existing plants. Numerous reactors, proposed, planned or under construction, were canceled.⁵⁶  Fifty-three reactors under construction were eventually licensed. One, Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant on Long Island, New York, was licensed by the NRC, but, due to local and state opposition never operated higher than 5% of rated power, closing less than three years after receiving its operating license.

For pressurized water reactors, thinning, corrosion, cracks, leaks and ruptures in steam generator (SG) tubes in the 1970s and 80s often led to more frequent shutdowns for additional SG tube inspections.  While SGs were intended to last the original 40-year initial licensing period, most SGs have required replacement after 20 to 30 years, a capital expense of several hundred million dollars. Some PWRs shut down permanently primarily (or partially) because of SG issues.⁵⁷ Large holes must be cut in the reactor containment to remove old SGs and move the new ones in.

Complications following steam generator replacement have also resulted in permanent shutdown of some PWRs.

In 2009, during an outage for a power uprate and steam generator replacement at Crystal River, a delamination, or crack, occurred in the outer wall of the containment building.  Attempts to repair the damage resulted in additional delaminations in 2011. A late 2012 report said the plant could be repaired but forecast that the cost could exceed $3 billion and take eight years.⁵⁸

Following replacement of San Onofre’s steam generators in both units in 2010 and 2011, Unit 3 was required to shutdown due to an 82 gallon per day SG tube leak.  All four replacement SGs were subsequently determined to have vibration related tube wear, later attributed by Southern California Edison to design flaws.⁵⁹

On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake shook Japan for three minutes and triggered a tsunami which killed over 19,000.  Because of overwhelming media coverage, what most people outside Japan remember, though, is the Fukushima nuclear accident caused by flooding of the plant site by the tsunami.  The accident’s impact on the nuclear industry was severe in many nations. The U.S. saw new regulatory requirements for existing and new plants.

The 31 new reactor applications filed with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission at the height of the nuclear renaissance (2008-09) had dwindled by two-thirds before Fukushima and is now down to two with construction in progress.⁶⁰

Of the major firms that built America’s nuclear plants – GE, Combustion Engineering, Babcock & Wilcox and Westinghouse – only Westinghouse still markets commercial nuclear reactors .  In January 2018, Westinghouse, a subsidiary of Toshiba, was sold to a Canadian firm after filing for bankruptcy in March 2017.⁶¹   At the end of July 2017, Santee Cooper, the South Carolina public power utility, decided to halt construction on V. C. Summer 2 & 3, at that point approximately two-thirds complete, due to “significant challenges” “notably uncertain costs, the uncertain availability of production tax credits, and reduced demand forecast.”⁶¹

Ten year forecast for U.S. nuclear

I think it is likely that the Vogtle units will be completed. The NuScale project in Idaho has a good prospect of being constructed.  Beyond those listed earlier, it’s likely that one or two reactors will encounter unforeseen circumstances that will result in early shutdown. Many reactor licensees  will apply for subsequent license renewals to extend their operating life out to 80 years.  Some with first extensions will choose to shut their plants down at or near the end of 60 years.

Given the new legislation signed into law recently and more submitted to Congress, more advanced reactor development and construction is quite likely in the United States.

I intentionally did not include Yucca Mountain in this article as there is longstanding precedent for long term on site storage of high level radioactive waste while waiting for the long delayed federal solution for permanent safe storage.  I personally don’t see disposal of irradiated fuel as an obstacle for new plants or continued operation of existing plants.

1. 1. Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay
   2. Nordhaus, Ted, and Jessica Lovering. Why Advanced Nuclear Reactors May Be Here Sooner Than Many Imagine. Greentech Media. May 24, 2019. Accessed June 30, 2019. .
   3. Construction on both Watts Bar units began in 1973 and was halted in 1985, with Unit 1 essentially complete. Construction resumed in 1992 on Unit 1, with it achieving commercial operation in 1996. Although Unit 2 originally began construction on September 1, 1973, construction was halted on September 17, 1985 due to regulatory and economic factors. Construction was subsequently resumed on October 15, 2007, and the plant was completed on October 19, 2016, 43 years after construction first started (although the plant was only under active construction for 21 of those years). – Watts Bar Nuclear Plant. Wikipedia. most recent edit: March 18, 2019. Accessed June 30, 2019.
   4. History of Watts Bar Unit 2 Reactivation. U.S.NRC. (Last Reviewed/Updated October 28, 2015). Accessed June 30, 2019.
   5. “The reasons cited for this decision include rising costs, decreasing electricity demand, construction delays, and the bankruptcy of Westinghouse, the lead contractor for the project and the designer of the reactor. The project to build two additional reactors at the V.C. Summer nuclear power plant had begun in 2009, and the reactors were scheduled to come online in 2019 and 2020. –  South Carolina Utilities Stop Construction of New Nuclear Reactors – Today in Energy – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Accessed June 30, 2019.
   6. Nuclear Power in the USA. World Nuclear Association. Updated June 2019. Accessed July 02, 2019.
   7. Davis, Lucas W, and Catherine Wolfram. Deregulation, Consolidation, and Efficiency: Evidence from U.S. Nuclear Power. National Bureau of Economic Research. August 19, 2011. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   8. Peak Gas; North American Natural Gas Crisis, 2000–2008. Wikipedia. Accessed June 30, 2019.
   9. Manfreda, John. The Real History Of Fracking. OilPrice.com. February 24, 2017. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   10. Fracking. Greenpeace USA. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   11. What Is Fracking?. Independent Petroleum Association of America. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   12. Average Power Plant Operating Expenses for Major U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities, 2007 through 2017 (Mills per Kilowatthour). SAS Output. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   13. Electricity Deregulation Causing Nuclear Power Plants to Seek Rate Increases. Electric Choice. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   14. Nuclear Power in the USA. World Nuclear Association. Updated June 2019. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   15. Kewaunee Power Station. Wikipedia. most recent edit March 18, 2019. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   16. Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Plant. Wikipedia. most recent edit March 18, 2019. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   17. Fort Calhoun Becomes Fifth U.S. Nuclear Plant to Retire in past Five Years. – Today in Energy – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).” October 31, 2016. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   18. Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station. Wikipedia. most recent edit June 04, 2019. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   19. Entergy Corporation Closes the Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station in Massachusetts. New England Energy Report – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). June 13, 2019. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   20. Fortin, Jacey. Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant Is Shutting Down. The New York Times. May 09, 2019. Accessed July 01, 2019. – “The facility, which is near Middletown, Pa., has been losing money, and in a statement on Wednesday, Exelon Generation, the company that owns the plant, said it would be closed by Sept. 30. The company and its employees had been hoping for a subsidy from the state, and when that fell through, a shutdown was the only option, that statement said.”
   21. Three Mile Island Unit 1 To Shut Down By September 30, 2019. Exelon Corporation. May 8, 2019. Accessed July 01, 2019. – “Exelon Generation previously announced that the station would prematurely shut down, absent policy reform, due to economic challenges and market flaws that fail to recognize the environmental and resiliency benefits from TMI and other zero-carbon nuclear energy plants across the Commonwealth.”
   22. Larson, Aaron. Duane Arnold Nuclear Plant Will Close in 2020. Power Magazine. July 29, 2018. Accessed July 02, 2019.
   23. Entergy, NY Officials Agree on Indian Point Closure in 2020-2021 – Indian  Point Website. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   24. Balaskovitz, Andy. Palisades Nuclear Plant in Michigan to Shut down in 2022. Energy News Network. September 28, 2017. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   25. Storey, Jeff. Indian Point Closure Will Put Power Supply in Flux. Times Herald-Record. December 15, 2018. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   26. Nikolewski, Rob. Regulators Vote to Shut down Diablo Canyon, California’s Last Nuclear Power Plant. Los Angeles Times. January 11, 2018. Accessed July 01, 2019. – “The nuclear plant’s operator, Pacific Gas & Electric, in 2016 announced an agreement with a collection of environmental and labor groups to shut down the plant, which has delivered electricity since 1985.”The utility said Diablo Canyon would be uneconomical to run in the near future because of changes in California’s power grid — specifically, the growth of renewable energy sources, increased energy efficiency measures and the migration of more customers from traditional utilities to new local suppliers under the state’s community choice aggregation program.”
   27. Cass, Andrew. FirstEnergy Solutions Could ‘immediately Evaluate Options’ If Ohio Bill Passes. The News-Herald. July 01, 2019. Accessed July 01, 2019. – “June 30 came and went without final passage of an Ohio bill that would subsidize the state’s two nuclear plants under the threat of closure.”That was the deadline FirstEnergy Solutions officials said was needed in order to keep Ottawa County’s Davis-Besse Nuclear Plant open.”
   28. Schmidt, Mitchell. Powering Down: Iowa’s Only Nuclear Plant Nears End. The Gazette. May 05, 2019. Accessed July 02, 2019.
   29. Short-Term Energy Outlook. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Accessed July 02, 2019.
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   31. Annual Energy Outlook 2019. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). January 24, 2019. Accessed July 02, 2019.
   32. “An NRC-issued license that authorizes a licensee to construct and (with certain specified conditions) operate a nuclear power plant at a specific site, in accordance with established laws and regulations. A COL is valid for 40 years (with the possibility of a 20-year renewal)” – Combined License (COL). U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Accessed July 02, 2019.
   33. Combined License Holders for New Reactors. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Accessed July 02, 2019.
   34. Combined License Applications for New Reactors. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Accessed July 02, 2019.
   35. Bellefonte Nuclear Plant. Wikipedia. most recent edit January 08, 2019. Accessed July 02, 2019. – Bellefonte’s original construction began in 1975.
   36. Gardner, Timothy. U.S Finalizes $3.7 Billion Loan for Vogtle Nuclear Power Plant. Reuters. March 22, 2019. Accessed July 03, 2019.
   37. Nuclear Power in the USA. World Nuclear Association. Updated June 2019. Accessed July 01, 2019.
   38. Landieri, Alexa. Exelon Official: No New Nuclear Plants To Be Built in the U.S.. U.S. News & World Report. April 16, 2018. Accessed July 02, 2019.
   39. Exelon States Its Case: Pro-Nuclear With Caveat. Nuclear Street. April 20, 2018. Accessed July 03, 2019.
   40. Second License Renewal Road Map. Nuclear Energy Institute. May 2017. Accessed July 3, 2019.
   41. Backgrounder on Subsequent License Renewal. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. February 21, 2018. Accessed July 03, 2019.
   42. Status of Subsequent License Renewal Applications. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. most recent edit December 10, 2018. Accessed July 03, 2019.
   43. Small modular reactors (SMEs) are defined as nuclear reactors generally 300MWe equivalent or less, designed with modular technology using module factory fabrication, pursuing economies of series production and short construction times.
   44. Small Nuclear Power Reactors. World Nuclear Association. updated May 2019. Accessed July 04, 2019.
   45. NuScale Power’s Small Modular Nuclear Reactor Becomes First Ever to Complete Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Phase 1 Review. NuScale Power. April 20, 2018. Accessed July 04, 2019.
   46. ChoFeb, Adrian, Adrian Cho, Meredith Wadman, Dennis Normile, Charles Piller, Paul Voosen, Ann Finkbeiner, and Katie Camero. Smaller, Safer, Cheaper: One Company Aims to Reinvent the Nuclear Reactor and save a Warming Planet. Science. February 22, 2019. Accessed July 04, 2019.
   47. What Is the Carbon Free Power Project?. INL. December 20, 2018. Accessed July 04, 2019.
   48. CAREM. Wikipedia. most recent edit: June 20, 2019. Accessed July 04, 2019.
   49. Diggs, Charles. Reactors on Russia’s Floating Nuclear Plant Reach Full Capacity. Bellona.org. April 25, 2019. Accessed July 04, 2019.
   50. Margo.aga. Floating Nuclear Power Unit, ‘Akademik Lomonosov’ in port of  Murmansk, Russia, Wikimedia, September, 24, 2018. Accessed July 04, 2019. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.
   51. RITM-200. Wikipedia. most recent edit February 24, 2019. Accessed July 04, 2019.
   52. Suk-yee, Jung. Small Modular Reactor Export from S. Korea in Jeopardy. Business Korea. November 16, 2018. Accessed July 04, 2019.
   53. Swanek, Thaddeus. Congress Passes Bill to Advance American Nuclear Innovation. Nuclear Energy Institute. September 13, 2018. Accessed July 09, 2019.
   54. US Nuclear Innovation Act Becomes Law. US Nuclear Innovation Act Becomes Law – World Nuclear News. January 17, 2019. Accessed July 09, 2019.
   55. Bill Gates ‘thrilled’ by Legislative Boost for Nuclear. World Nuclear News. March 29, 2019. Accessed July 10, 2019.
   56. Nuclear industry slowdown was also affected, perhaps more than than the accident at Three Mile Island, by the “simple effects of supply and demand,” with energy growth requirements significantly less than what had been estimated when many of the power plants had been planned. – The Future of Nuclear Power. Illinois Issues. October 1980. Accessed July 07, 2019.
   57. Backgrounder on Steam Generator Tube Issues. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. last updated July 2, 2018. Accessed July 07, 2019.
   58. DiSavino, Scott. Duke to Retire Florida Crystal River Nuclear Plant. Reuters. February 05, 2013. Accessed July 07, 2019.
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   60. Analysis: The Legacy of the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster. Carbon Brief. March 10, 2016. Accessed July 07, 2019.
   61. Neuhauser, Alan. The U.S. Has Lost the Nuclear Race. U.S. News & World Report. June 1, 2018. Accessed July 07, 2019.
   62. Nuclear Power in the USA. World Nuclear Association. Updated June 2019. Accessed July 02, 2019.

A Popular Song From That Week

In The Year 2525  by Zager & Evans

Some Events of the Week^1,2

• June 29 – First test of the “Mailgram” – mailgrams transmitted messages directly to the selected post offices which would then print them out and send them by a letter carrier the same day to the intended address.

Western Union Mailgram

• June 30 – Nigeria blocked most humanitarian aid to the starving residents of the breakaway Republic of Biafra by telling the International Committee of the Red Cross and 19 other relief agencies that they would no longer be permitted to send planes to relief planes to the starving Biafran population
• July 1 – The formal investiture of the United Kingdom’s Prince Charles as the Prince of Wales took place at Caernarvon Castle in Wale.
• July 2 – The International Hotel in Las Vegas opened to guests. Barbra Streisand performed the first concert date to inaugurate the 1,510 room hotel, at the time the tallest building (30 stories) and newest and largest casino and resort in Nevada.
• July 3 – The The Soviet Union’s race to land a man on the Moon, already far behind the American program, ended with the explosion after launch of its N1 rocket, the Soviet counterpart to the American Saturn V.  The explosion was one of the largest artificial non-nuclear explosions in human history.
• July 4 – Michael Mageau, 19, became the first person to survive a murder attempt by a man who would become known as the “Zodiac Killer”, and the first to provide a description to the police.
• The crew of Apollo 11 told a press conference in Houston that they had given names to the two lunar spacecraft: Eagle and Columbia.

1. June 1969. Wikipedia. most recent edit: July 03, 2019. Accessed July 06, 2019.
2. July 1969. Wikipedia. most recent edit: May 29, 2019. Accessed July 06, 2019.
3. Barbra Streisand. Wikipedia. most recent edit: June 26, 2019. Accessed July 06, 2019. 1966 promotional photo of Barbra Streisand is in the public domain in the United States because it was published in the United States between 1924 and 1977 without a copyright notice.

A Popular Song From That Week

Love Theme from “Romeo and Juliet” by Henry Mancini

Some Events of the Week¹

• June 22

• • The Cuyahoga River at Cleveland, Ohio, caught fire after an oil slick floating on the river ignited. Factories along the Cuyahoga had regularly dumped their waste products into the waters for decades. Before it was extinguished, the floating blaze burned two wooden railroad trestles and warped the tracks, with an estimated repair cost of $50,000. Cleveland Mayor Carl B. Stokes, citing that the city of Cleveland had no legal jurisdiction over the river, called upon the state of Ohio to take action against the licenses of industries that polluted the river.
  • Actress and singer Judy Garland was found dead of a drug overdose in her London home on Cadogan Lane.
• June 23 – Warren E. Burger was sworn in as the new Chief Justice of the United States. Retiring Chief Justice Earl Warren administered the oath of office to his successor.
• June 24 – After white voters in Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) voted to make their nation a republic, the last ties with the United Kingdom were severed as the British Governor, Sir Humphrey Gibbs, tendered his resignation.
• June 26 – A former NASA official told reporters in Houston that lunar module pilot Edwin “Buzz” Aldrin had been originally been scheduled to become the first man to set foot on the Moon during the upcoming Apollo 11 mission, but that mission commander Neil Armstrong was “not unaware” of the importance of being first and that Armstrong decided to supersede Aldrin. “It shouldn’t be that he pulled rank,” said Paul Haney, the former public affairs officer for the Manned Spacecraft Center, “but I think he was not unaware of the importance of the first man who stepped onto the moon and he looked at it very carefully and decided that perhaps it should be the commander’s prerogative.” Haney added that the decision for Armstrong to be first had been made in mid-April, “Precisely why the change, I don’t know, but I do know that it caused quite an upset.”
• June 27 – Criminal penalties against homosexuality and against abortion were eliminated in Canada, subject to certain conditions, as royal assent was given to the C-150 bill that had passed the House of Commons on May 14 and the Canadian Senate on June 13.
• June 28 – The Stonewall riots, a milestone in the modern gay rights movement in the United States, began in New York City when an angry crowd of bystanders began throwing bottles, rocks and even a parking meter at NYPD patrolmen who were carrying out a routine raid on the Stonewall Inn², a gay hangout at 53 Christopher Street in the Greenwich Village section of Manhattan. At 1:28 in the morning, seven policemen came in to the Stonewall Inn, locked the doors, arrested the employees, and began lining up the patrons to transport them to a detention center and then releasing them, the usual practice for roundups. As one author would note later, “On that night, though, the customers did not slink off into the darkeness. On that night, they stayed, gathering outside the Stonewall Inn. These raids— and the horrible treatment of gay people— had to stop.”  The trigger, on one of the hottest and most humid days of the summer, was when the police were forcing their way through the angry crowd to put one of the last customers into a police van (accounts differ as to whether it was a lesbian who resisted arrest  or a transvestite man who was violently shoved into the van.

1. “June 1969.” Wikipedia. Accessed June 28, 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_1969.
2. Image credit: Manuscripts and Archives Division, The New York Public Library. “Stonewall Inn” New York Public Library Digital Collections. Accessed June 29, 2019. http://digitalcollections.nypl.org/items/510d47e3-57e3-a3d9-e040-e00a18064a99

If I hadn’t been paying attention to the road, I could have been in a head-on collision yesterday.

I guess I wasn’t totally clear on what happened when I sent this text message to Karen shortly after it happened.

What I meant was “Stupid @#%$&@! van coming from the opposite direction moved into my lane – right in front of me – to make a left turn!”

I didn’t see who was driving the van.  I don’t know if it was a man or a woman, old or young.  All I know is that it was a big white van from a local concern and I would have hit it if I hadn’t come to a complete stop.  It had moved into my lane to make a left turn like they thought it was a turning lane.

Below is a satellite image of the road where this near mishap occurred.  The yellow arrow indicates my direction of travel to the east, the red that of the van to the west.  Unlike a couple of the main roads, this one doesn’t have a center turning lane for most of its length through town, though there is one for a few blocks 2/3 of a mile to the east.

Most of the time, traffic in America is pretty safe. Road signs and markings are very standardized, and, except for speed limits, most people comply with roadway expectations.

Every now and again, though, someone has a mental hiccup and does something they wouldn’t normally do.  For instance, several times over the years, I’ve stopped, looked both ways at an intersection, and almost proceeded while the traffic light was still red.  In each of these instance, stop signs had been replaced with traffic signals, sometimes decades earlier.

An hour or so after yesterday’s near miss, just to the west on this same road, a compact car started to change lanes into the side of my truck.  When I laid on my horn, the lady swerved quickly away.

Two close calls on the same day – and on the same road.

Image information: The image at the top of the page is an composite of two other images, intended for illustration only.  The out-of-focus road is the same road where the described incident occurred.

Being back in school is one of the most common dreams among adults of all ages.

In dream surveys, being in school often ranks in the top five categories subjects’ dreams, even among adults out of school for decades.

For one informal survey that included 128 people, respondents said they had dreams of high school (73%), college (34%), elementary school (12%), middle school (7%) (with a total of more than 100% if added because some had recurring dreams in more than one setting). 98.4% of respondents viewed their school dream experiences as somewhat unpleasant or very unpleasant, with some feeling their dreams went beyond anxiety to a panic level.¹

There are all sorts of articles online about the meanings of dreams like these from psychological meanings to mystical meanings.  Perhaps the dreams highlight unresolved childhood or young adult insecurities. Maybe there are lingering feelings of guilt, inferiority, or worries that misdeeds may be found out.  Some dream superstitions say that to dream of teaching at school is a sign of good fortune while dreaming of being a student may foretell setbacks in business or work, especially if you dream of forgetting your lessons.²

The meaning of dreams has been puzzled over for centuries.  Ancient Egyptians thought that dreams were either communications from the gods or prophecies of the future. Dream interpretation as a psychological field of study was scientifically established with Sigmund Freud’s The Interpretation of Dreams, which laid the foundation for many of his theories of the unconscious mind.  Many experts now disagree with Freud’s conclusions and others believe that dreams don’t signify anything at all.³

Dreams are the stories our unconscious mind creates while we sleep. It’s thought that everyone dreams, though some people say they never remember having had any dreams.  While dreams sometimes seem fantastical or illogical, they usually involve elements from waking life – involuntary clips, images, feelings, and memories that occur during the REM (rapid eye movement) period of sleep.⁴

My school dreams have occurred occasionally for years with variations usually on two specific themes:

• trying to get registered as a new student in the high school I graduated from in real life, or
• failing to attend the same difficult college class, usually math of some sort, over and over, knowing that it’s happened before.

Unlike school dreams for many, mine never has any anxiety or panic.

Both themes have foundations, I suppose, on aspects of my school years.

In 1965, we moved crosstown in North Platte, Nebraska, and I had to switch to a different junior high school. Then, going into high school two years later, I had to enroll in a much larger school in the middle of Houston, Texas.  I only attended there one semester, moving to a smaller school just outside Houston.  I really didn’t want to change schools, but my mom and step-dad promised that, after that move, I wouldn’t have to.  We lived in 4 different rundown places between January 1968 and my graduation in May 1970, all of them in the same school district – and I didn’t have to change schools.

When I enrolled as a freshman at the University of Houston, I was driving a new-to-me used car that I had just purchased with my meager savings.  Before classes even started, though, I totaled it on the way home from work when I hit a horse that was tied up on a too long rope that allowed it to go into the middle of the road.

I was able to make it to classes my first semester by catching a ride with another student from my area.  Transportation home was by city bus and the closest stop was several miles from home.  I was too introverted to try hitchhiking, so usually walked the entire distance.  In the second semester, transportation was more difficult and, after a few weeks, I just stopped going.  I didn’t understand I had to officially drop my classes and ended up on academic suspension.

Years later, I went back to school in part to finish what I had failed to complete.  As a non-traditional student, I received an Associates Degree and a Bachelor of Science degree.

None of my school dreams are related to either of those

1. They Dream of School, and None of the Dreams Are Good – Peter Gray Ph. D., June 29, 2019, Psychology Today (accessed June 23, 2019)
2. What Does a Dream about Going Back to School Mean? – Craig-Hamilton-Parker, October 21, 2019, Dream Meanings, Dreamsleep.net (accessed June 23, 2019)
3. Dreaming – Psychology Today (accessed June 23, 2019)
4. ibid.

I’ve sat next to the ship’s commanding officer at a black-jack table while at 400 feet below the surface of the ocean — and, yes, we were gambling for money.

The original version of this post – Poker – was written at the end of 2005, in the middle of the poker boom.

Don’t get me wrong, I’ve played poker — and several of its variations. I’m just not attracted to like many others are.

Poker remains popular for many, though far less so than than it was during the poker boom¹ from 2003 through 2006. It’s not like it’s something new.

I was playing poker over four decades ago — and quit when it put my young family in financial difficulty.

It was in the 1970s — cold war period — and I was on a missile submarine in the North Atlantic. It was a three month patrol, 90 days without any way for the individual sailor to communicate with anyone not on the ship. We could receive five family grams during the patrol — 20 word limit each and censored to ensure there was nothing upsetting.

There wasn’t a lot of entertainment available to us for distraction. Video games, DVDs and VCRs weren’t around then. We had movies after the evening meal, but if you were on watch or asleep you didn’t get that. Most guys brought some books and there was a tiny library with a few more.

A lot of the time, for many, was filled with games, mostly card games like pinochle, spades, hearts, and cribbage. Some guys played backgammon.  Then, too, there was the weekly poker game and — in the middle of patrol — casino night. I’m not sure what the legality of it was, but as an enlisted man, I’ve sat next to the ship’s commanding officer at a black-jack table while at 400 feet below the surface of the ocean — and, yes, we were gambling for money. A percentage went to the “welfare and rec. committee.” Funds from it, I suppose, were available to help guys and their families who might, at times, be struggling to make ends meet. The only benefit I saw personally from it was the ship’s party held each year one of the times when we were the crew off of the ship. (The missile subs had two crews — the blue crew and the gold crew. I was on the blue crew.) As I recall it, there was only one casino night each patrol, and I always came out ahead from it.

The weekly poker night, though, is what brought me down. It wasn’t high stakes, but over a period of several weeks, one could lose quite a bit of money. A percentage of the proceeds from it also went to the “welfare and rec.” fund. Since most of the guys didn’t have much money with them, the winnings and the losses were kept track of in a notebook. I never really did terribly bad, but I seldom came out a winner — and, for a time, I couldn’t stay away from the game. When what I owed got to somewhere over $200, I stopped. It wasn’t more than we would be able to handle. However, I still had to tell my wife that we were going to have to get by with less money for a while and that I had lost it by playing poker.

I never played poker, other than for fun, not cash, after that. I really enjoyed playing the game, by I also recognized in myself that it was something that I could enjoy too much, that I could easily get very engaged in it and lose a lot more than I lost on that submarine when there wasn’t a drop of alcohol to be had anywhere. I hate to think how much I would have lost if American ships allowed liquor on board.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not against gambling. I’ve gambled on occasion, never cards, just slot machines and the lottery,² but I don’t let my enjoyment of it overwhelm me, like I know it could. I keep in mind that I’m not going to win big and that I will likely take home less money than I came with, but I won’t lose more money than I planned.

1. The poker boom was a period between 2003 and 2006, during which poker, primarily no limit Texas hold ’em, but also other variations, became considerably more popular around the world. During the boom years the online poker player pool at least doubled in size every year. Wikipedia.
2. In 2008, Arkansas voters approved lottery ticket sales, with the first tickets sold in 2009. The closest store selling tickets is now just 3 miles down the road.

Image information: Cassius Marcellus Coolidge – Poker Game (1894) (accessed June 22, 2019)