Probabilities, Voting and Nader

There are a lot of probabilities associated with voting. Unfortunately, some folks confuse polls with the probability of a candidate being elected.

For instance, let’s say that a national poll says that Bush is favored by 48% of the popular vote, Kerry 48%, and Nader 4%.

Some would say that, from the results of this poll, the probability of election to the presidential office is 48% each for Bush and Kerry and 4% for Nader. But that’s just flat wrong!

At best the poll predicts a even probability, 50% to 50%, for Bush and Kerry.

The probability of Nader being elected is 0%.

Even if all of the national polls being done were showing Nader with 10 to 15%, the probability of his being elected would still be 0%.

A vote for Nader is a wasted vote, because he is not going to win under any conceivable set of circumstances.

Some might say, “No, it’s not wasted. It’s a protest vote, because neither of the two main candidates are worthy of my vote.”

Nobody will remember the protest votes when the presidential term begins on January 20, 2005. Protest votes are meaningless, worthless, and wasted. They do not make a difference!

Please don’t waste your vote on a zero probability!


Post from one of my abandoned blogs – North Farnham Freeholder – recovered from Internet Archive WayBackMachine 2/26/2011 – page


commentary, people, politics, Uncategorized, values

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