At present, the primary tools used by scientists and policy makers for predicting climate change are computer models, generally the global warming projections used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). According to some sources, global average temperatures have not risen since 1998 and warming may not resume until some time in the next decade. NONE of the IPCC models has a 20 year period of little or no warming.
As with anything based on computer models, projection results are subject to the accuracy of the input data provided to model and the validity of the assumptions used in the modeling.
On February 12, 2009 Dr. Patrick J. Michaels testified at a U.S. House subcommittee hearing, “The Climate Crisis: National Security, Public Health, and Economic Threats.”
Dr. Michaels explained, “The answers to the important questions about the implications of climate change are driven by a series of computer models and mathematical simulations.” He subsequently stated, “I must report that our models are in the process of failing.”
With each post, I link to videos, news, and/or other material that I have read or viewed associated with climate change.
Prepared text for Congressional Hearing:
- Testimony of Patrick J. Michaels to the Subcommittee on Energy and Environment of the Committee of Energy and Commerce, U.S. House of Representatives – “… the rates of warming, on multiple time scales, have now invalidated the midrange suite of IPCC climate models.” February 12, 2008
- Bringing Balance, Disclosure and Due Diligence into Science-based Policymaking, Ross McKitrick, Department of Economics, University of Guelph, Ontario, Canada – “Academic research, even when used used to drive multibillion dollar public investments, is done to standards that would never be acceptable in the business sector.” October 16, 2004 (pdf., 19 pages)
- Get real, Wong tells greens, The Sydney Morning Herald, February 23 – “There is no point in putting a cost on carbon pollution in Australia if it simply results in jobs and emissions being exported to countries that do not yet face a carbon price.
- Brazil climate change threatens top coffee crop – Soybean production also could be affected, The Telegraph Herald, Dubuque, Iowa, February 22 – “The future for Brazil’s mighty farm sector could be grim, with hotter temperatures pushing crops past its borders, uphill into the Andes and toward the tip of South America.”
- Consensus is a dangerous thing – the debate over global warming, opinion, DailyRecord.com, Fenruary 22