Beyond Gaffes, Posturing and Negative Ads.

imageI voted for Obama.

At the time, I thought he was the better choice for the nation – not necessarily for me, personally, but for the nation.

On February 2, 2009, on the Today Show, Barak Obama said, “I will be held accountable. You know, I’ve got four years. … A year from now, I think people are gonna see that we’re starting to make some progress, but there’s still gonna be some pain out there. If I don’t this done in three years, then there’s gonna be a one-term proposition.”

According to a University of Colorado election prediction model, the President’s “one-term proposition” may be more accurate than he would like – way more accurate.

The model, developed by two  political science professors, Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, predicts the results at the state level.  The United States presidential election is not truly a nation election, but, rather fifty-one separate elections, each of which determines who will get the Electoral College electors.  The model uses multiple economic indicators at the individual state-level – including unemployment rates and per capita income – to forecast the electoral college results, state-by-state.

When it comes right down to it, Bickers  says that computerized prediction models “suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy,” he said. “It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.”

The authors’ study is to be published in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association.  The current results are based on economic indicators taken 5 month in advance of the election.  It will be updated with new indicators due out in September, which should improve it’s accuracy.

And what is the mode’s tract record”?

Eight for eight.

And what is it’s prediction?

With 270 electoral college votes required to win, Obama gets 218.



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